DO NOT USE! This is a personal web development project and not intended to be used as anything but an experiment. Also, this is a WORK IN PROGRESS...
  1. Cutting over original HTML, CSS to fiddle with Bootstrap constructs.
  2. Various sections work partially or not at all currently.

Stock Research Tool

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Symbol Quote and Details
- Dividata Chart ( Dividata)
- Finviz Chart ( FinViz)
- Zacks
- Yahoo Quote/Key Stats/Etc.
- G oogle Finance Chart
- Fidelity Research (Sentiment) ()
- Fidelity Research (Technicals)
- Modern Graham (archives) (see also Val By Ticker)
- Headlines
- Interactive Chart
Symbol Quote and Details
Discounted Cash Flow: — (??)
(Select a symbol)
Symbol Quote and Notes
Hint: A quick assessment of what to do for a symbol. Suggestions: Buy, Sell, Wait (something is afoot, revisit later and reassess whether to buy, sell, or wait more)
Calculators
"Sell At" Calculator
Total Shares
Total Cost
$
Desired Percentage
%
Average Cost (per share)
$
/share
Target ROI+ Price per Share
$
/share
Idea: "SELL AT" Calculator
Say I bought some shares (10) for a total of $100. I decide I want to sell them at/above a 20% return on my investment. What price is that based on my purchase?

Steps:
  1. enter the number of shares
    (if there are batches, enter the total (total) number of shares)
  2. enter the total cost
    (the calculator will divide it by the shares to get a "per share" (costPerShare) estimate)
  3. enter the % ROI you want
    (the calculator will find the pershare you want: costPerShare * % + costPerShare)
  4. save w/ticker (optional)
    (once you know the number)
Drag/Drop Buckets
Bucket: Near Term (This week)
Medium Term (This month)
Bucket: Long Term (This quarter/year)
Bucket: Uncategorized
+ New Item
TODOs
Website Resources
Investing Site Links/Resources
Approach: Zacks Trading Styles
  • Momentum Style:
    • "Trend is your friend"
    • Price to Sales Ratio of < 1=Good
  • Aggressive Growth Style:
    • - Often small cap.
    • - 50% growth rates (not highest or lowest -- median in their peer group)
  • Value Style:
    • - "Good stock at a great price"
    • - P/E not enough! Must have a positive CATALYST (such as an upward earnings estimate revision -- zacks fav kind is Q1 and F1 over last 4 weeks)
  • Growth and Income Style:
    • - "Good company with solid revenue that pays a good dividend"
    • - Focus on mid-caps and smaller large-caps with best dividend yields (this can mean there is still runway for growth)
  • 'All Style' Style:
    • - Mix and match of the best pieces of each style. "Once you understand the differnt trading styles and how they work together, you'll find yourself picking better stocks" (hmmm)
  • Technical Analysis:
    • - chart pattern recognition ...author also uses RSI Oscillator, amongst others.
    • - "Whether you are a fundamental trader or a technical trader each has something to offer.... check both the charts and the fundamentals"
Approach: "The Simple Path to Wealth"

11/20/16 - Reading "The Simple Path to Wealth", by JL Collins.

You only need three investment tools:

  1. Stocks: VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund) (NOTE: Fidelity alternative is "FSTVX")
  2. Bonds: VBTLX (Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund) (NOTE: Fidelity alternative is "FSITX")
  3. Cash: Held in Money Market at your local bank.

Book says:

  • Stocks (passive index of the whole market) provides best returns over time and serve as a hedge against INFLATION.
  • Bonds provide income, tend to smooth out the rough ride of stocks and serve as a hedge against DEFLATION.
  • Cash is good to have around for routine expenses and to cover emergencies. Hold these at your local bank/credit union--where you get FDIC insurance coverage for up to 250K and a modest interest rate.
The distributions between these 3 tools depend on your investment horizon. Old school thinking is take 100 (or 120) and subtract your age. That's how much of your allocation should be in Stocks, and the rest divided up between Bonds and Cash. BUT, the author suggests the bonds don't perform, and wont protect your investment like you need...so you probably want to more heavily favor stocks. Even if you are 60...it's possible you might have 30 years of investing to preserve/grow your funds.

Source for Vanguard/Fidelity alternatives: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Fidelity

Approach: "Big Safe Dividend"

12/26/15 - Reading "The Little Book of BIG Dividend: A Safe Formula for Guaranteed Returns" by Charles B. Carlson, CFA.

This book proposes an approach to finding stocks which pay dividends as well as promising total returns on the stock at sale.

Site is here: http://www.bigsafedividends.com/

Here's their "BSD" chart...it looks like they keep it up-to-date: http://www.bigsafedividends.com/bsdchart.aspx

General Notes
Approach: Tangent Portfolio (Ben Stein) Tangent Portfolio Tool (Ben Stein)
ASSET CLASS FUND TICKER
BONDS
Treasury Bonds IEI
Inflation Bonds TIP
Foreign Bonds BWX
LOW BETA STOCKS
Energy IXC
Consumer Staples KXI
Utilities JXI
Health Care IXJ
SMALL/VALUE STOCKS
US VBR
Developed Markets DLS
Emerging Markets DGS
Approach: Money Ratios
Your Money Ratios: 8 Simple Tools for Financial Security
Age 65 & 80% Income Replacement Mortgage Debt Education Debt Investements Disability Life Insurance LTC Ratio
Age Capital to Income Ratio Savings Ratio Mortgage to Income Ratio Debt to Avg Income Ratio Stocks ( i) Bonds ( i) % of Monthly Income Insurance to Income Ratio Project Ratirement Income to LTC Costs
Notes:
  • For BONDS: FIBIX (Fidelity mutual fund of Intermediate term US Treasury Bonds only.)
  • For STOCKS: (not doing this yet, but it should be the S&P500 ...I think, see the book)
BUY/SELL indicators

NOTES: (these are very general...just trying to develop my approach over time by capturing my thoughts so I can see them later)

  • SELL when:
    • FOR WIN: (the main idea here is to take your wins and propogate them into new wins... without trading exceptional income-producing power if possible.)
      1. current owned position is above 100% gain
      2. longer than 1 year holding period (take gains at the lower capital gains tax rate)
      3. PE > 20 (or more generally when it's higher than it's peers PEs...you can see this generally in Google's stock screener at finance.google.com when looking up a symbol)
      4. Dividend is below "n%" (some arbitrary threshold based on the current dividend percentages available by locking the money up elsewhere ...in other words if you are getting a great yield on the money--and there isn't a better currnet-income producing alternative you might consider avoiding rushing out of the stock just because it's other sell-at-a-win indicators are true.)
    • FOR LOSS: (the main idea here is to keep your investment money working for you... dead money SUCKS!) (consider for tax loss harvesting, and for capital protection... though I have not yet successfully included this process in my process)
      1. BEFORE the 1 year holding period (to take losses at your current marginal-income tax rate)
      2. PE > 20 (or high compared to peers)
        OR NO PE...which means the company's earnings are negative!!
      3. No dividend (this means the money is dead money, it's not producing anything!)
  • BUY when:
    1. On the MF (Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula from The Little Blue Book that Beats the Market)
    2. Pays a dividend (particularly if it's a compelling dividend) (I've found that when a stock ends up sucking over the year long holding period, it feels better to at least have been collecting a dividend that's better than what you'd get for parking that money in a savings account)
    3. It's PE is < 20 (but more importantly, when it 's PE is below it's peers averages)
    4. When consensus price targets are above the current price you can buy at (this means at least other folks are looking at it and there's some anaylst coverage... which means somebody thinks its worth paying attention to... at least that's what I think it means)
Magic Formula (Joel Greenblatt) Magic Formula Site (Joel Greenblatt) Scripts to restore functionality to allow you to cut/paste into a spreadsheet for further analysis.
Market Sentiment
Market Sentiment Indicators
Correction (10%)
Bear Market (20%)
Healthy Treasury Curve (Good Sentiment)
Unhealthy Treasury Curve (Poor Sentiment)
Is a given MARKET DIP a good time to buy or should I wait? Two General Indicators: (1) TREASURY CURVE, (2) ECONOMIC DATA (GDP and Unemployment)

(1) TREASURY CURVE

For example, is a downturn a "correction" (10%), a "bear market" (20%), or something more? A correction can be a more normal occurrence in a cycle, but a bear market can put a damper on investor sentiment because no one knows when the decline will stop and whether something more substantial is looming.

Looking at the shape of the Treasury Yield Curve can provide some indication of larger market sentiment. A healthy curve shows that investors expect a greater return for lending money over a longer period of time. However, an unhealthy (inverted) curve may indicate doubts about the long term economic expansion. An inverted curve has preceeded each recession since WWII.

Where can I see the current treasury curve graphed? https://www.gurufocus.com/yield_curve.php (Note to self: consider plotting this using treasury.gov data in the future (?))

(2) ECONOMIC DATA

GDP and Unemployment Is GDP high, or at least inline with historical norms? Is Unemployment low, or at least inline with historical norms?

Here's the video on marketwatch.com that prompted this examination. Most of the info comes from this piece from Ellie Ismailidou. http://www.marketwatch.com/video/explainomics/how-to-tell-the-difference-between-a-market-crash-and-a-correction/4EB0B6E3-D2E7-40C6-A436-9C68525123E6.html